Markets Soar as Ceasefire & Global Trade Optimism Cheers Street; Nifty Nears 25K, Sensex Zooms 2,975 points....
Broader Market Shines:
The rally wasn’t just about the frontline indices — mid-cap and small-cap stocks outperformed. The BSE MidCap index gained 3.85%, while the BSE SmallCap index surged 4.18%. Market breadth was emphatically positive, with 3,543 stocks advancing, 578 declining, and 133 remaining unchanged on the BSE.
India-Pakistan Ceasefire: Relief on the Border....
After weeks of mounting tension marked by drone strikes and missile exchanges, India and Pakistan agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire, brokered through late-night US diplomacy. President Trump made the historic announcement on Saturday, injecting fresh optimism into markets nervous about a regional conflict. While minor ceasefire violations were reported, the truce largely held, giving investors a reason to cheer.
US-China Trade Truce Boosts Global Sentiment....
Global markets turned upbeat after Washington and Beijing announced a truce in their trade war, including a reciprocal duty rollbacks by 115 percentage points. Both sides termed the outcome “productive,” with a joint statement promising “good news for the world” expected shortly.
The sources confirm that the US and China reached a trade agreement in Geneva on May 10–11, 2025, described as a “truce” to de-escalate their trade war. Tariff Rollbacks:
🧨The US reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, a cut of 115 percentage points.
🧨China reduced tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%, also a 115-percentage-point cut.
These reciprocal duty rollbacks are explicitly confirmed by most sources.
Ambiguity regarding "90 - Day Tariff Pause":
Some of the website's claim of a “90 - day tariff pause” between US and China is not clearly supported by broader sources.
Most of the authentic sources, I searched describe the tariff reductions (145% to 30% for the US; 125% to 10% for China) as part of a broader trade deal, with no explicit mention of a 90 - day duration.
One source vaguely notes that the US and China “suspended part of their tariffs for 90 days,” but this lacks detail and does not confirm that the 115-point cuts were temporary. Other sources suggest ongoing negotiations for further reductions (e.g., to 50% or 80%), but the finalized deal focuses on the 30% and 10% levels without a specified pause.
Critical Note: The 90 - day Tariff pause may stem from confusion with earlier trade talks or an unverified report. The primary agreement centers on the permanent tariff reductions, not a temporary pause.
Conclusion: The 115-percentage-point duty rollbacks are accurate, but the “90 - day tariff pause” is not substantiated by most sources, I searched.
Buzzing Sectors: IT Steals the Show....
The Nifty IT index was the star performer, jumping 6.48% to 38,203.40, as tech stocks staged a comeback. Top gainers included:
- Oracle Financial Services (+8.96%).
- Infosys (+7.79%).
- Persistent Systems (+7.65%)
- Coforge (+7.5%).
- LTI Mindtree (+6.91%).
- TCS (+5.22%).
Other Stock Highlights:
Winners:
- Bajaj Electricals soared 15.53% after doubling its Q4 profit YoY to Rs 59.05 crore.
- Man Industries hit a 20% upper circuit, tripling its Q4 profit to Rs 68.1 crore.
- Triveni Turbine surged 8.76% on a 24% YoY profit jump.
- Reliance Power rallied 11.25%, turning profitable in Q4 with Rs 125.6 crore.
- Magellanic Cloud gained 9.87% on a fresh drone order for Rs 5 crore.
- Adani Power climbed 6.33% after securing a 1,500 MW power contract for UP.
- Atul Auto rose 6.69% on a 34% jump in Q4 net profit.
Some Other Positive Gainers:
- Dr. Reddy’s gained 3.26% after a 22% YoY rise in quarterly profits.
- Aarti Pharmalabs advanced 3.48% on robust Q4 earnings.
- TFCI climbed 4.30% after a 48% YoY jump in standalone profit.
- Eveready Industries added 3.31%, posting a 29.4% profit growth.
- Navin Fluorine slipped 3.23% despite posting a 35% rise in net profit.
- Venkys (India) fell 1.58% after a 60% drop in Q4 profit.
- Quick Heal (for individual and small business users) and
- Seqrite (for enterprise and government clients).
- Hot Rolled Coils, Sheets, and Plates (CIF threshold: $675/tonne).
- Hot Rolled Plate Mill Plates ($695/tonne).
- Cold Rolled Coils and Sheets ($824/tonne).
- Metallic Coated Steel Coils and Sheets ($861/tonne).
- Colour Coated Coils and Sheets, profiled or not ($964/tonne).
Economic Update: Forex Reserves Dip...
India’s forex reserves dipped by $2.065 billion to $686.06 billion in the week ending 2 May. While foreign currency assets rose by $514 million, gold reserves fell slightly, and India’s position with the IMF also dipped marginally.
IMD Forecast: Early Monsoon Arrival...
In a fresh development, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the southwest monsoon may hit Kerala by 27 May, the earliest since 2009. This bodes well for lifting the agriculture and rural consumption sentiments.
In the US: Trump’s Big Pharma Move...
In a Sunday announcement that could ripple through global markets, President Trump revealed plans for an executive order to slash prescription drug prices by up to 80%, aiming to level the field for US consumers.
Outlook:
With geopolitical risks easing and global sentiment turning favorable, investors will now shift their attention to upcoming corporate earnings and macroeconomic data. The sharp rebound indicates underlying strength, but volatility may persist as markets digest global cues and central bank commentary.
Immediate Resistance: 24,924.70 (confirmed day’s high).
Next Resistances: 25,000 (psychological, near all-time high); 25,100–25,200 (Fibonacci, analyst targets).
Immediate Support: 24,800–24,820 (pivot S1, 20-day EMA).
Next Supports: 24,700 (50-day SMA); 24,500–24,600 (100-day SMA, gap base).
Overall Outlook:
The market sentiment has turned decidedly bullish following the positive developments on the geopolitical front and the progress in US-China trade. The strong rally today suggests further upside potential, although some consolidation after such a sharp move is also possible. Investors will likely continue to monitor the India-Pakistan ceasefire and global trade news for further direction. The early monsoon forecast adds another layer of positive sentiment for the Indian economy.
