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Pre-Market Report: Nifty 50 Outlook for April 15, 2025

Market Snapshot (as of April 14, 2025):

• Nifty 50 Previous Close: 22,828.55 (+1.92% on April 11).
• Sensex Previous Close: 75,157.26 (+1.77% on April 11).
• GIFT Nifty Futures: Up 356 points at 23,305 — indicating a strong gap-up opening.

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Global and Domestic Catalysts:

Positive Factors:

1. U.S. Tariff Relief:

   • The U.S. has suspended reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods for 90 days, signaling easing trade tensions. Exemptions on smartphones, electronics, and auto parts boosted optimism in tech and auto sectors.
   • U.S. Markets rallied:
     • Dow Jones: +0.78%
     • S&P 500: +0.79%
     • Nasdaq: +0.64%

2. RBI’s Accommodative Stance:

   • RBI recently cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 6%, its first move in 12 months.
   • Market anticipates up to 100 bps of additional cuts in 2025, driving positive sentiment in rate-sensitive sectors like banks, autos, and real estate.

3. Firm Asian Market Cues:

   • Nikkei: +1.14%
   • ASX 200: +0.46%
   • Hang Seng: +0.36%
   • Shanghai Composite: marginally negative at -0.06%

Headwinds to Watch:

1. Semiconductor Tariff Concerns:

   • Former U.S. President Trump may announce new tariffs on imported semiconductors, a move that could impact global IT and hardware supply chains.
   • Retaliatory tariffs by China (reportedly up to 145%) loom over tech and export-heavy sectors.

2. Spike in Volatility:

   • The India VIX surged 46% last week, reflecting heightened investor nervousness despite bullish momentum.

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Institutional Flow/Outgo (April 11, 2025):

• DIIs: Net buyers of ₹3,759.27 crore — indicating strong domestic support.
• FIIs: Net sellers of ₹2,519.03 crore — likely booking profits amid global uncertainty.

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Technical Analysis:

Nifty 50 – Key Levels:

• Immediate Resistance:
  • 23,000–23,050: Psychological barrier, also aligned with 20-DEMA and call writing zones
• Next Resistance:
  • 23,300–23,500: Zone of convergence of 100-DEMA and 200-DEMA
• Critical Support:
  • 22,700–22,800: Strong put writing and 50% Fibonacci retracement
• Deeper Support:
  • 22,500–22,300: March lows, strong technical cushion

Bank Nifty Outlook:

• Previous Close: 50,887.75 (+2.11%)
• Resistance:
  • 51,500–52,000: Bullish continuation zone above 50-DEMA
• Support:
  • 50,000–49,750: Strong base near psychological mark and 20-DEMA

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Market Outlook Summary

The Nifty 50 is set to open on a strong note above 23,000, buoyed by policy support, tariff relief, and global cues.

DII inflows of ₹3,759 crore on April 11 show solid domestic conviction, while FII selling and elevated VIX inject a dose of caution.

If bulls manage to hold above 23,050, a test of 23,300–23,500 remains likely.

Conversely, a fall below 22,800 could attract profit-booking.

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Stay tuned for intraday updates and sectoral picks post-opening bell.