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Comprehensive Analysis of Rajesh Exports: From Gold Dominance to Lithium-Ion Ambitions...

Introduction: Rajesh Exports Ltd. (REL) is one of the world’s largest integrated gold refining and jewelry manufacturing companies. Headquartered in Bangalore, India, the company has a dominant presence in the global gold supply chain, from refining to retail. Photo: Jasatta.

However, in recent years, Rajesh Exports has diversified into the energy sector with plans to establish a lithium-ion battery plant, positioning itself as a key player in India’s push for electric vehicle (EV) adoption and renewable energy storage.

This article provides an exhaustive analysis of Rajesh Exports, covering:

1. Technical Analysis (based on the provided weekly candlestick chart).

2. Lithium-Ion Battery Plant & Expected Production Timeline.  

3. Quarterly Financial Performance.

4. Impact of Gold Prices on Business. 

5. Gold Refinery Business.

6. Jewelry Retail & Export Operations, etc. 

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🧨Technical Analysis of Rajesh Exports (Weekly EOD Chart): 

The weekly candlestick chart (as of March 25, 2025) offers key insights into Rajesh Exports' stock performance:

Price Action & Moving Averages:

• The stock is in a prolonged downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows.
• Current Price: ₹201.4
• 50-Day MA: ₹256.28 (Above the current price, acting as resistance)
• 100-Day MA: ₹348.89 (Far above, strong long-term resistance)
• 150-Day MA: ₹452.00
• 200-Day MA: ₹206.82 (Just above the price, immediate resistance)
• The price is currently below all major moving averages, indicating bearish momentum.

Volume Analysis:

• Recent spike in volume suggests some accumulation or speculative buying.
• If this volume sustains, a potential short-term recovery is possible.

Relative Strength Index (RSI 14):

• 45.39 (Neutral, but close to oversold levels).
• A move above 50 would indicate increasing bullish momentum.

Average Directional Index (ADX 14):

• 35.37 suggests a strong trend, but it does not indicate whether it's bullish or bearish.
• Since -DI (22.22) is close to +DI (24.24), there's no strong directional bias yet.

Stochastic Oscillator (14,3):

• 45.44 (%K) and 27.01 (%D) – Indicates that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold.
• A move above 50 would confirm bullish strength.

MACD (26,12) & Signal Line (9):

• MACD: -25.79, Signal Line: -27.57 → Slight bullish divergence (+1.78).
• MACD divergence hints at a possible short-term rebound.  
• Indicates possible bottoming, but needs confirmation by moving above zero.

Chaikin Money Flow (21):

• -0.02 (Slightly negative) → Suggests weak buying pressure.
• A move into positive territory would confirm strong accumulation.

Bollinger Bands:

• Bollinger Width: 119.76 – High volatility in the recent period.
• The price is near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a possible bounce.

Parabolic Indicators:

• William %R (14): -54.56 – Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold.

Conclusion:

• Short-term: Some signs of bottoming out, but confirmation is needed.
• Medium-term: Bearish unless price sustains above ₹256.
• Key Resistance Levels: ₹206 (200-day MA), ₹256 (50-day MA).
• Key Support Levels: ₹180 (recent low), ₹150 (psychological).
• Trading Strategy:
  • Aggressive traders may consider a speculative buy if volume and RSI improve.
  • Volume is decent, but a breakout above ₹256 (50-day MA) is needed for a bullish reversal.  
  • So, conservative traders should wait for a breakout above ₹256 for a trend reversal.

2. Lithium-Ion Battery Plant & Expected Production:

Rajesh Exports announced its foray into lithium-ion battery manufacturing to capitalize on India’s EV and renewable energy boom.  

Key Details:

- Investment: ₹6,000 crore (~$720 million)  

- Location: Dharwar Karnataka.

- Capacity: 10 GWh initially, scalable to 30 GWh. 

- Expected Start of Production: Late 2025 or early 2026 (delays possible due to supply chain issues).

Strategic Importance:

- Reduces India’s dependence on Chinese battery imports.  

- Aligns with government’s PLI (Production Linked Incentive) scheme for advanced chemistry cells.  

- Potential customers: Ola Electric, Tata Motors, Ather Energy, and grid storage projects.

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3. Quarterly Performance (Recent Trends):

Rajesh Exports’ financials are heavily influenced by gold prices and global demand.  

Q3 FY2024-25 Highlights:

- Revenue: ₹45,000 crore (YoY decline due to lower gold prices)  

- Net Profit: ₹350 crore (impacted by refining margin compression)  

- Exports Contribution: ~60% of revenue (UAE, USA, Europe key markets)  

- Jewelry Retail Growth: 12% (domestic demand stable)  

Challenges:

- Rising interest rates affecting gold loan business.  But the current soft interest regime, is positive for Rajesh Exports Ltd.

- Volatile bullion prices squeezing refining margins.

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4. Impact of Gold Prices on Business:

Gold prices directly impact Rajesh Exports’ profitability:  

- High Gold Prices: Boost refining margins but hurt jewelry demand.  

- Low Gold Prices: Increase jewelry sales but reduce refining revenue.  

Current Scenario (March 2025):

- Gold at ~$2,050/oz (moderate levels).  

- Indian demand remains resilient due to on going wedding season and ahead.  

- Refining margins under pressure due to global competition.

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5. Gold Refinery Business:

🧨Indian Refinery (Uttarakhand): 

   - Capacity: 2,000 tons/year (world’s largest single-location refinery).  

   - LBMA - accredited (ensures global acceptance).  

   - Sources: Raw gold from Africa/Latin America.  

   - Exports: UAE, Switzerland, USA.  

   - Margins: ~1.5-2% (volatile due to gold price fluctuations).  

🧨Valcambi (Switzerland – Acquired in 2015):  

   - Capacity: 1,600 tons/year (one of the world’s top refiners).  

   - LBMA & COMEX - accredited (premier certifications).  

   - Clients: Central banks, ETFs, luxury brands (e.g., Rolex, Patek Philippe).  

   - Technology: Leader in gold granule production (*Gold Geisslers*).  

   - Strategic Role: Processes recycled gold/scrap from Europe/USA.  

Why Valcambi Matters:  

- Provides Rajesh Exports with global credibility and access to high-margin markets.  

- Synergy with Indian refinery (shared sourcing/logistics).  

-   According to a recent report, the central banks are going on for aggresive buying of Gold. 

Gold prices in the domestic market have surged by 14% this year, driven by escalating global uncertainty, concerns over a potential U.S. recession triggered by President Donald Trump's tariff policies, and growing expectations of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been actively purchasing gold in significant quantities. In the Lok Sabha, Congress MP Manish Tiwari questioned whether this trend indicated a move away from the US dollar as the primary settlement currency, ANI reported.

Responding to the query, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman clarified that India's growing gold reserves, including those held by the RBI, are not aimed at replacing any international currency. She explained that the RBI's gold acquisitions are part of a strategy to maintain a balanced reserve portfolio. While the US dollar remains a key component of India's foreign exchange reserves, the central bank also holds reserves in other currencies and gold to ensure diversification.

Sitharaman emphasized that this approach should not be interpreted as India distancing itself from the dollar or advocating for an alternative global settlement mechanism. Her remarks come amid rising global discussions on de - dollarization, with some nations exploring alternative trade and reserve strategies. However, she reiterated that India's increased gold accumulation does not signal any such shift. This was reported by The Economic Times.

Valcambi is a crown jewel in Rajesh Exports’ refining empire

6. Jewelry Business (Retail & Exports):

Retail (India & Middle East):

- Brands: "SHUBH" (India), "REL Jewels" (UAE).  

- Stores: 150+ in India, expanding in GCC.  

- Growth Strategy: Omnichannel (online + offline).  

Exports (B2B):

- Supplies to Walmart, Costco, JCPenney.

- Custom jewelry manufacturing for global brands.

Conclusion: A Diversified Giant Facing Challenges.

Rajesh Exports remains a gold industry leader but faces headwinds from:  

- Declining stock price (technical downtrend).  

- Margin pressures in refining.  

- Execution risks in lithium-ion venture.

However, if the battery plant succeeds and gold demand revives, REL could see a strong rebound. Investors should watch:  

✔ Break above ₹256 (50-day MA) for bullish confirmation.  

✔ Lithium plant progress updates. 

✔ Quarterly margin trends.  

With strategic diversification, Rajesh Exports is positioning itself for long-term growth beyond gold.