Stock Market Rollercoaster: Earnings Surprises, Vodafone's Big Bet & Dollar Drama Unfold!

The domestic stock market ended Thursday’s session with minimal change, as investor sentiment remained subdued due to concerns over rising inflation in the United States and ongoing global trade tensions. The session was marked by volatility, primarily due to the expiry of weekly index options on the NSE. Photo: Equity Bulls.

The Nifty 50 index settled below the 23,050 mark, recording its seventh consecutive session of losses—the longest losing streak in three months. While pharma and healthcare stocks showed resilience, sectors such as IT and public sector banks faced selling pressure.

The S&P BSE Sensex closed 32.11 points lower (-0.04%) at 76,138.97, while the Nifty 50 ended the day 13.85 points lower (-0.06%) at 23,031.40. Over the past seven sessions, the Sensex and Nifty have lost 3.11% and 2.98%, respectively.

Among the major drags, Adani Enterprises fell 4.58%, while Infosys and HDFC Bank declined 1.10% and 0.54%, respectively.

In the broader market, the S&P BSE Mid-Cap index inched up 0.07%, whereas the S&P BSE Small-Cap index slipped 0.43%.

The market breadth remained negative, with 1858 shares advancing, 2089 shares declining, and 127 shares remaining unchanged on the BSE. Meanwhile, India VIX, a measure of market volatility, rose 0.40% to 14.96.

Stock-Specific Action:

Gainers

  • Honasa Consumer surged 12.53% after reporting a 0.46% increase in consolidated net profit at ₹26.02 crore in Q3 FY25, while revenue rose 6% YoY to ₹517.51 crore.
  • Sanghvi Movers jumped 10.38% as its net profit rose 13.56% to ₹33.07 crore, with revenue up 33.19% to ₹156.13 crore in Q3 FY25 over Q2 FY25.
  • Venus Pipes & Tubes gained 2.12%, despite a 22.81% drop in net profit to ₹17.97 crore. The company’s revenue, however, advanced 11.67% to ₹231.30 crore in Q3 FY25.
  • Man Industries (India) rose 2.74%, posting an 11.5% jump in net profit to ₹34.1 crore, despite a 12.1% decline in revenue to ₹731.9 crore.
  • SMS Lifesciences India rallied 3.79% after reporting a 17.71% rise in net profit to ₹4.85 crore, with revenue growing 17.41% to ₹84.60 crore.
  • P N Gadgil Jewellers hit an upper circuit of 20% after a 49.36% jump in net profit to ₹86.03 crore, with revenue rising 23.51% YoY to ₹2,435.75 crore.
  • PTC India soared 3.95%, posting an 86.63% surge in net profit to ₹181.11 crore, even as revenue dipped 0.21% to ₹3,420.81 crore.
  • Suven Pharmaceuticals advanced 5.82% as net profit jumped 77.3% to ₹82.88 crore, with revenue soaring 39.7% to ₹307.15 crore.

Losers

  • Bharat Forge fell 2.49% after reporting an 8.4% drop in standalone net profit to ₹346 crore, with revenue declining 7.4% to ₹2,096 crore in Q3 FY25.
  • SKF India slipped 3.20% after a 17.1% decline in net profit to ₹109.50 crore, even as revenue rose 15% YoY to ₹1,256.10 crore.
  • Godawari Power and Ispat dropped 1.34% as net profit declined 36.85% to ₹144.78 crore, with revenue falling 0.86% to ₹1,297.60 crore.
  • Natco Pharma hit a lower circuit of 20%, posting a 37.75% drop in net profit to ₹132.4 crore, with revenue plunging 37.41% to ₹474.8 crore.
  • NIBE tumbled 8.29% after reporting a 56.23% fall in net profit to ₹1.93 crore, despite a 137.16% surge in revenue to ₹148.68 crore.
  • Balaji Amines slipped 3.50% as net profit dropped 17.79% to ₹33.19 crore, with revenue down 18.42% to ₹312.73 crore.
  • Rites fell 2.04% despite signing an MoU with C-DAC to collaborate on IT solutions.

Vodafone Idea Rebounds on Expansion Plans

Shares of Vodafone Idea climbed 7% to ₹8.99, bouncing back after a three-day decline. Investor sentiment improved after management announced plans to invest ₹10,000 crore in network expansion by March 2025.

The company has already spent ₹5,300 crore in capex between April and December 2024 and is seeking ₹35,000 crore in bank funding to support future plans. Management remains optimistic about persuading the government to convert the remainder of its dues into equity.

Currency & Commodities Market:

  • Rupee edged higher against the US dollar, trading at ₹86.9250, compared to its previous close of ₹86.9500.
  • India’s 10-year benchmark bond yield rose 1.93% to 6.826%.
  • MCX Gold futures (April 2025) gained 0.41% to ₹85,830.
  • Brent crude (April 2025) fell 1.33% to $74.18 per barrel, as a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal and rising US crude inventories weighed on prices.

Global Markets & Dollar Movement

  • The US Dollar Index (DXY) shed 0.38% to 107.60.
  • The US 10-year bond yield slipped 0.69% to 4.602%.
  • The yen surged 1.1% to 152.71 per dollar, while the Canadian dollar touched a new high for the year.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%, as markets reacted to former President Donald Trump’s announcement on reciprocal tariffs. Analysts remain uncertain about the long-term impact, with traders awaiting more concrete policy actions.

Technical Outlook:

The Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty struggled to sustain their intraday gains, closing with moderate losses. Technical indicators remain weak, with analysts recommending a ‘sell on rise’ strategy.

  • Nifty 50: Strong resistance at 23,250, with key support at 22,800.
  • Bank Nifty: Holding above 49,250, with an upside target of 49,800–50,000. A fall below 49,250 could see further downside to 49,000–48,700.

Conclusion:

The market’s cautious sentiment, fueled by inflation fears and global trade tensions, continues to weigh on investor confidence. While select stocks showed resilience, broader market indicators remain fragile. With technicals signaling weakness, market participants should brace for near-term volatility and adopt a cautious approach. The investors are suggested to acquire the shares of good companies. 

Yesterday, I bought some shares of Shriram EPC Ltd (Rs.15.15) for some of my portfolio clients. 

SEPC Ltd, formerly known as Shriram EPC Limited, is an Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) company specializing in turnkey contracts across various sectors, including water and wastewater utilities, road construction, process plants, steel mills, mine development, and power plants. As of September 30, 2024, the company reported a robust order book valued at ₹8,472.96 crore indicating a strong pipeline of projects.

Earlier, the company's order book stood at ₹1,044 crore as of June 30, 2023, and ₹1,055 crore as of December 31, 2023. The substantial rise by September 2024 reflects SEPC's successful acquisition of new contracts during that period.

The company's projects are primarily concentrated in the water sector, accounting for a significant portion of the order book.

SEPC's strategic partnership with Mark AB, who became the majority owner in September 2022 after infusing ₹350 crore, enhanced its technical qualifications and access to networks in the GCC countries. 

Going forward, this partnership is expected to enable SEPC to bid for projects that it would otherwise not qualify for, such as those in the oil and gas sector.

Given its healthy order book, improving financial performance, and strategic initiatives, SEPC Ltd (Rs.15.15) presents a compelling investment opportunity for those looking to invest in the infrastructure and EPC sector.

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